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JFXGILLIS

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Melos, Morals, Matryoshkas and Majorities: Of Sudetenland and South Ossetia

Chaos

Matryoshka images by Eileen Fontenot

Image #2: Humans seem so simple ....

Image #3: .... but there's a lot going on underneath that isn't always obvious.

Image #4: Large and Hollow

I was going to use this image to illustrate a certain Superpower's response to all this, but you can only push a metaphor like this so far, know what I mean?

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Sudetenland and South Ossetia

One thing that the Russian crisis has done is convince me that "Godwin's Law," the general rule of internet discourse that discourages Hitler analogies, must be promoted to an International Treaty with Hitler analogies prohibited by convention, enforced by the stationing of U.N. peacekeepers in dominant media outlets and blogger cubicles--and it must be rigorously enforced in all offices of foreign affairs elites in Washington, official and semi-official. Osama bin Laden is not Hitler, despite President Bush's claim. Hugo Chavez is not Hitler, despite former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's claim. Saddam Hussein was not Hitler in 1991 despite the First President Bush's claim, and he was not Hitler in 2003 despite Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's claim.

Robert Mugabe is not Hitler despite ... No, wait a minute. Okay, Mugabe really is Hitler, but you get the idea.

Turns out, I am not alone in this Godwin's Law as international law idea. After doing all this research, I discovered that Washington Post columnist Anne Applebaum had made a similar case just a couple of months ago. Fortunately for me though, just a little more research revealed that, wait for it, wait for it, Anne Applebaum had written earlier comparing Saddam to Hitler.

Unfortunately, even the presidential campaign of Senator Barack Obama is not immune to the temptation to invoke the reductio ad Hitlerum argument, as Zbigniew Brzezinski demonstrated earlier this week, claiming, according to the Guardian, that

Putin's "justification" for splitting up Georgia - because of the Russian citizens living in South Ossetia - could be compared to when Hitler used the alleged suffering of ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland as a pretext for annexing Czechoslovakia in 1938.

But the absolute killer is when two of the neoconniest of the neoconservatives took to the op-ed pages of two of the most influential newspapers in the country to compare Vladimir Putin to Adolph Hitler and the current crisis in South Ossetia to the historical crisis in the Sudetenland. Max Boot in the Los Angeles Times wrote seemingly without even a tickle of self-awareness or consistency when he wrote of the Russian government's rationale for entering Georgia:

There are echoes here of German spokesmen from the 1930s shedding crocodile tears over the supposed mistreatment of German minorities in nearby states. Those were the excuses that Hitler used to swallow Czechoslovakia and Poland.

Notwithstanding that he tries to qualify the analogy immediately by claiming that maybe Putin's not Hitler, just Mussolini and Tojo, he still got it out there. Robert Kagan of the Washington Post, at least, seemed to intuit the treacherous intellectual waters ahead, sensing his own approaching ridiculousness. So, he started off thus:

The details of who did what to precipitate Russia's war against Georgia are not very important. Do you recall the precise details of the Sudeten Crisis that led to Nazi Germany's invasion of Czechoslovakia? Of course not, because that morally ambiguous dispute is rightly remembered as a minor part of a much bigger drama.

Yeah. Right. According to Kagan, if you forget about the facts, it all makes sense. The main reason Boot and Kagan bamboozle as they do is simply this: If the current crisis is Sudetenland revisited and Putin is Hitler and Georgia is Czechoslovakia, then, um, unless he is willing to push Russia back by force of arms rather than relying on diplomacy and other non-lethal instruments of state power, that means that in this little morality play, the part of the "appeaser" Neville Chamberlin is played by George W. Bush. Ooooopsy. What happened to the Winston Churchilly Bush of the last seven years worshipped by Kagan and Boot and the rest of the neoconservatives? Can you be all Winston Churchill one minute, all Neville Chamberlin the next while the presumed adversary is simultaneously Hitler and Stalin while invading Stalin's homeland? Things would get real stupid real fast, which is why these bellowing neoconservatives change the subject as quickly as possible after getting their Hitler analogy in.

But let me give Kagan some credit due and even a modicum of praise because although he rather buried the lede, he did say something important and intriguing and surprising in there: The Sudetenland Crisis was characterized by moral ambiguity. He does not go so far as to say "Hitler was right," but he allows for that possibility, or for the possibility that he was partially correct, anyway, or that the situation was too complex in real time to reduce it to a simple dualistic judgment on its own terms distinct from the events that followed.

But since he wants us to forget the details, allow me to refresh your memory. Following the Great War, the victorious allies dismantled the Austro-Hungarian Empire and constructed a series of nation-states in Central Europe and the Balkans. One such nation-state cobbled together a bunch of Czechs and a bunch of Slovaks in a country they decided to call Czechoslovakia. But included within that state was a minority set off regionally, linguistically and ethnically: The Germans of the Sudetenland. The state itself had little sense of national identity, having been artificially created (Czechs not being Slovaks and Slovaks not being Czechs), but there was a least a chance of national identity growing there because each group had a stake in the polity. The German minority, on the other hand, had little emotional investment in the new state and little chance of full engagement in the polity; they, in fact, identified themselves far more strongly with their countrymen beyond the artificial border than with the state wherein they were situated.

Morals and Matryoshkas

One need not accept the claims of minority oppression advanced by the Third Reich on behalf of the German Minority in Czechoslovakia to look at that situation and conclude: Trouble ahead. And it's not Good versus Evil or some grand idea in search of a war to vindicate it. It's human nature. People always everywhere feel the pull of a variety of identities: As individuals, as family members, as congregants, as patriots ... even as sports fans. And we articulate those identities through a variety of institutions--family law, church dogma, nation-states and sold-out stadiums like Lambeau Field.

We usually barely even acknowledge the separate existence of these various identities, thinking of ourselves like the matryoshka in Image #2--fully self-contained and apparently whole. When pressed by circumstances, we usually think of these identities as neat and concentric, all lined up and orderly, as in image #3. And that's fine. To think otherwise as individuals would be to draw our individual self-conception into a maelstrom of contradiction, paradox and the torment of divided loyalties. But at every level of social organization above the strictly individualistic, the world looks more like the Chaos of Image #1, with the tension and compression of varying elements of group identity creating strong--and yes, sometimes explosively violent--social conflicts.

Morals and Majorities

Those violent conflicts invariably erupt most intensely when these levels of group identity are cast in terms of Moral First Principle--as if to say that to be German in the Sudetenland was morally inferior than to be a Czech or Slovak in Czechoslovakia, or that to be Irish in the United Kingdom was morally inferior than to be British. Or, as in the current crisis, that to be Ossetian is morally inferior than to be Georgian. While Hitler himself was a moral monster, the Germans of the Sudetenland were not morally inferior to the Czechoslovakians merely by reason of their Germaness. The Irish were never morally inferior to the English simply by virtue of their Irishness.

And those conflicts are especially pernicious when an attempt is made to either apply a group identity (in some instances) or extinguish a group identity (in other instances) by force of arms. There is literally nothing Georgia President Saakashvili could do or can do to make the Ossetians feel Georgian against their will and despite their pre-existing sense of identity. Nothing except bloodshed or centuries can accomplish that. One people cannot vote for another people to surrender their sense of self. Artificially invented imaginary lines on a geo-political map do not create identities--shared experience does--language, religion, geography, history. There's nothing especially moral or immoral about any of those aspects of the human condition. We all speak one language or another, we're all churched or un-churched to one degree or another, we all live someplace and we all situate ourselves in a history of one sort or another.

I do not know why the Ossetians have the sense of identity they do, and I don't really care why. I just know that they do. Same for the Georgians, same for the Russians. Evidently, the Ossetians draw their sense of self in part in contradistinction to their neighboring Georgians (not, by the way, an especially unusual phenomena in human history). Thus, twice given the choice in plebiscites in the last 16 years, both times the South Ossetians voted overwhelming for separation from Georgia. They prefer Russia to Georgia. Again, don't ask me why, I don't know because I'm not Ossetian.

When Senator John McCain started commenting earlier this week, one head-scratcher for me was his "accusation" that there was a billboard in South Ossetia proclaiming "Putin is Our Leader." McCain seemed to think that this was somehow nefarious while overlooking the most obvious reason for the billboard: Ossetians like Putin better than Saakashvili. Again, don't ask me why. But I do know one thing: It's their call, not mine and certainly not John McCain's. If they determine for themselves ("determine," and "self," get it?) that they like Putin better than Saakashvili --or that they fear Georgia more than Russia, then that is up to them.

To bring it back to the matryoshka for a moment. There was Russia, There was the Soviet Union. Inside that was Georgia until Georgia broke away. Inside Georgia was South Ossetia until South Ossetia broke away. Who is to say which of those breakings away are morally superior to the other? On the principle of self-determination (for which the Great War was supposedly fought in the first damn place), the answer is: Nobody.

And that is why McCain's statement that he speaks for "all Americans" when he says "We are all Georgians now" is so dissonant. To begin with, no one ever speaks for "all Americans." But also, the McCain-for-President website features the slogan "Country First" as the dominating graphic. So okay. Country first.

However, if Americans are all Georgians now, that means America is Georgia. So which country is really "first?" And if Georgia is first, is South Ossetia last? And if so, on what grounds do "we" deny the South Ossetians their sense of country while elevating the Georgians' patriotism to be exactly confluent with American patriotism?

While it is true that on the highest level of abstraction that we are "all Georgians now," in the sense that we are all human, it is just as true that we are also "all South Ossetians now," trapped in a swirl of group loyalties and enmities trying to make our way in a world not set up to our exact specifications, not all neat and concentric.

Morals and Melos and Might Makes Right

Because there is no real moral distinction between the various foundations for group identity and because group identity is extremely difficult to impose or extinguish absent bloodshed or centuries, we end up in a terrible situation when we try to impute a definitive moral dimension to such identities when they collide. To be blunt: Hitler may have been Hitler, but that doesn't change the fact that the Germans of the Sudetenland were an isolated minority within the borders of a nation-state they had no say in creating and had little interest in sustaining.

Thus, the very fact that we have to concede that Hitler's position was at the least morally ambiguous should teach us something. If you have to say, "Yeah, well, maybe Hitler kind of had a point about that" then you need to think it through again. But rather than taking the so-called "moral" lesson of South Ossetia as offered by Brzezinski, Boot and Kagan, we need to re-think it from the ground up. Literally from the ground, perhaps (since strong affection for a particular land is a very common binding agent for group identity). Unlike the supposed "elite" foreign policy advisors, though, I don't have to concede even an inch of moral ground to Hitler, and I can do so by recourse to a very simple expedient: There is no moral principle at stake. Only group identity and power, neither of which in themselves constitute moral First Principles.

And it's not as if we humans haven't been through this before. Funny how these events all seem to be occurring in roughly the same part of the world, albeit millennia apart, but the issues I raise here were addressed 2,500 years ago in the Dialogue between Athens and Melos. It is from that dialogue documented by Thucydides that we have generally drawn the idea that "Might Makes Right," although that exact phrase wasn't used.

Rather, faced with an offer they couldn't refuse (although they did) from the powerful City-State of Athens, the small and independent island of Melos tried to deflect the Athenian insistence of alliance by the assertion of moral right. To which the Athenian envoys famously replied:

[S]ince you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

Things actually went pretty well for the plucky and righteous Melians in the subsequent battles--until they got to the part where all their men were massacred, the women raped and the children enslaved.

So. Am I arguing that Might Makes Right? Actually, No. One of the reasons I say No is that a shared set of moral principles is one of the elements of the human condition that allows for and strengthens group identity. Might does not make Right. However:

Might makes Nations.

To put it another way, if you have an army but no moral right, you will win the contest of colliding group identities every single time over an adversary who has no army but all the moral right conceivable. Thus has gone every war in recorded human history from Melos thousands of years ago to Tblisi today. So either we believe in a miraculously changed human nature, or, "we" have not the slightest business in the world deciding on the moral "rightness" of the competing claims of group identity as among Ossetians, Georgians and Russians.

Now pardon me, I must go. Michael Phelps is going for another gold. U - S - A! U - S - A!

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{"commentId":2461222,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Great minds run in the same channel?

VDH's Brave Old World

{"commentId":2461222,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 4 votes
Reply#1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:14 AM EDT
{"commentId":2464602,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

Jack,

Very eloquently said. Obviously a piece into which a great deal of thoughtfulness was placed.

I have to disagree with some of your points (of course). First, I think that the jabs at McCain were unnecessary.

However, if Americans are all Georgians now, that means America is Georgia. So which country is really "first?" And if Georgia is first, is South Ossetia last? And if so, on what grounds do "we" deny the South Ossetians their sense of country while elevating the Georgians' patriotism to be exactly confluent with American patriotism?

Right here you're just nit-picking. McCain was speaking metaphorically, and his statement was one of solidarity with an ally. Georgia isn't perfect, but its a democracy in its infancy, and I sincerely believe that Russia's efforts on behalf of Ossetia are merely an attempt to gain strategic ground.

Now, should the question of Ossetian independence be answered? Yes! You are correct, imposing their inclusion into Georgia probably won't ever work. But perhaps independence and Georgian NATO membership could occur in tandem, thus effectively countering any Russian strategic gains.

In any case, a lot to go over here. Let me chew on it for a while longer and get back to you.

{"commentId":2464602,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 3 votes
#1.1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:47 PM EDT
{"commentId":2464836,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

E.D.:

First, I think that the jabs at McCain were unnecessary.

Oh yeah? You shouldda seen 'em before I toned 'em down.

:^{)>

Right here you're just nit-picking. McCain was speaking metaphorically, and his statement was one of solidarity with an ally.

But seriously--that was exactly the point of departure for this article. I was actually most pleased to have the Brezinski quote pointed out to me while this essay was in progress because I really didn't want to be too partisan about it (and, fyi, I'm rather disappointed that Obama just took the line of Beltway-elite least-resistance). HOWEVER, it is out of such metaphors that huge foreign affairs catastrophes are made.

If "we are all Georgians" in the humanitarian sense--metaphorically--that I can and will accept. As I said, we are in that sense also "all South Ossetians now." But it's PRECISELY that McCain expressed it as "solidarity with an ally" that makes his metaphor so dangerous. That's because if they = us and they are under attack, that means we are under attack.

And what do we do when we get attacked?

McCain's claim reduces to a recipe for more war, something I intend to resist as vociferously as I can.

I'm actually against NATO entrance at this time for states bordering Russia. There's just too many potential costs for too few potential benefits. Wouldn't say never and I wouldn't even reject applications, just put 'em at the bottom of the to-do list for now.

{"commentId":2464836,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 5 votes
#1.2 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:07 PM EDT
{"commentId":2465110,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

And what do we do when we get attacked?

Actually, I believe that if Georgia was part of NATO Russia would not have invaded. They may have responded within Ossetia, but I highly doubt they would have crossed into Georgia proper. That's the strength of these alliances in the modern world. They are open, not secret, and they prevent war rather than encourage it.

{"commentId":2465110,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 4 votes
#1.3 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:29 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474793,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

Kain:
This was exactly the point that I was making with my article. Russia would never have crossed into Georgia (and likely not into South Ossetia) if it had to fear possible retaliation from the West. Thus, while everyone was lambasting me as a complete fool that would walk us off the edge into WWIII with Russia (even Harrison, who promptly plugged his article after shooting off my ass and who I also would have fully expected to understand the principle of attaching Georgia's fate to that of the United States and NATO by extension and its subsequent deterrent to further Russian aggression) they totally missed the point that making further war with Georgia equal a new war with the United States and its NATO allies is the surest way to create peace.

As for Jack's piece, I enjoyed the history lessons and the metaphors but I was disappointed that he didn't address the big picture. In the small picture, yes, South Ossetia should have self determination over to whom it is yoked to. In the big picture, Russia is an aggressive power that showed after it "liberated" South Ossetia that it wants the rest of Georgia as a consolation prize. I know this based on the fact that they entered Gori, killed enough civilians that they could be stacked like cordwood, ranged further out into the countryside raping and killing as they went along and only returned to South Ossetia not when the ceasefire was in place but after they had exhausted themselves with violence and plunder. In the big picture, Angelina Jolie would grow a full, thick mustache before I allowed South Ossetia to self-determine that they want to be annexed by a country that wants to sack my country's government, rape its women, conscript its sons and make eunuchs of the rest thus removing the one obstacle, the Caucasus Mountains, preventing this bloodthirsty band of Huns from flooding in and doing just that. Jack's piece is a fine philosophical piece but it offers no practical answers that will keep the Georgians from being enslaved and treated like chattel.

{"commentId":2474793,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"isaacs"}
  • 4 votes
#1.4 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474952,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

Great points through and through, Scott. I'll head over to your article post-haste!

{"commentId":2474952,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 3 votes
#1.5 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:55 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474954,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

scott:

Well, it's those "big pictures" that tend to screw everything up. How'd that "big picture" work out after Versailles? Or Yalta for that matter? Okay for us, maybe; not so good for some other folks.

And Scott, let me re-emphasize this this so I know you got it:

Angelina Jolie would grow a full, thick mustache before I allowed South Ossetia to self-determine .....

It's not your call. It's not "our" call.

Moreover, you need to send a package of these to Angelina Jolie because what you say you'll "allow" doesn't matter. If I'm reading these ceasefire terms correctly (and I believe I am) the deal is done and dusted. What you say "you" won't allow has just happened and it's not going to un-happen.

{"commentId":2474954,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#1.6 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:56 PM EDT
{"commentId":2477007,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

Jack:

It's not your call. It's not "our" call.

Moreover, you need to send a package of these to Angelina Jolie because what you say you'll "allow" doesn't matter.

Apparently I did not make my point very clearly. When I wrote "I" that referred to if I were the leader of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili. Let me reintroduce the point with a very American example...

***
Let's say that I am the Governor of Kentucky and that the Ohio River is impassable except for a bridge running across it from Cincinnati into Northern Kentucky. Let's also say that Ohio has sent me threatening signals and is massing thousands and thousands of troops at the Ohio River. Many in Northern Kentucky feel like they are more Cincinnati than they are Lexington so they start to agitate for secession from Kentucky and annexation by Ohio. Ohio has made it no secret that they are hostile to Kentucky because it used to be a subdomain of Ohio before Ohio's government dissolved and Kentucky formed its own. Now, should I bow to self-determination and let Northern Kentucky secede to Ohio so that Ohio can position thousands of tank and artillery teams and infantry units with heavy weapons unchallenged on the other side of the only bridge over the impassable Ohio River? Or should I shoot the gap, suppress the Northern Kentuckians and destroy the bridge from Cincinnati to prevent the hostile Ohioans from compromising my only valid line of defense?
***

It is my call because if these rubes in Northern Kentucky secede, the Ohioans will be a sneeze away from seizing the rest of my state and executing all loyal Kentuckians.

If I'm reading these ceasefire terms correctly (and I believe I am) the deal is done and dusted. What you say "you" won't allow has just happened and it's not going to un-happen.

No offense Jack, but did you just fall off the turnip truck or are you being this naive to make your argument for South Ossetian self-determination tenable? These ceasefire terms, if you can call them that, are a joke inviting further trouble.

Saakashvili reluctantly signed the plan yesterday – which calls for Russian troops to pull back but also grants them limited patrols inside Georgia, while accusing the Russians of being "evil" and "21st century barbarians".

So, Jack, how long do you think it will take for a Russian unit to pick a fight with a Georgian unit it runs across, get on the horn for serious backup, go for a major chevauchée and the Russian government pushes the line that the Georgians fired first? Because that is, essentially, a repeat of what just happened.

Meanwhile, the risk of a new era of east-west confrontation triggered by Russia's invasion of Georgia heightened yesterday when Moscow reserved the right to launch a nuclear attack on Poland because it agreed to host US rockets as part of the Pentagon's missile shield.

Yes, nothing says that Russia is ready to abide by the stipulations of a ceasefire like the part of the quote I have emphasized in bold. The part with emphasis also clearly indicates that Russia would never take an offensive posture with its legal patrols outside of South Ossetia.

Rice's show of solidarity with Georgia's beleaguered president was theatrically undermined when Russia dispatched a column of armoured personnel carriers towards the Georgian capital.

As the talks were taking place, 10 armoured personnel carriers laden with Russian troops set off from Gori, penetrating to within 20 miles of Tbilisi.

A country that would send 10 APCs worth of fully armed infantry within 20 miles of where the American Secretary of State was staying is most definitely a country that is respectful of its partners on the world stage and will certainly abide by the letter to a ceasefire negotiated by some of those very same partners.

Senior Russians continued to insist yesterday that Russian troops had not stepped outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia despite the fact they have been deep inside Georgian territory in several places all week.

"Our ground forces never crossed the border of the conflict zone," said Sergei Ivanov, the deputy prime minister.

Surely the man second in command only to the true leader of Russia, Vladimir Putin, would not tell such an outrageous lie... he must not have known about all those numerous documented encounters of Russian forces far outside the conflict zone... particularly the force that wandered within a threatening distance of a high American official. These fellows can certainly be trusted to keep their word.

Jack, if I could ask you to play Advocatus Diaboli for a moment, can you think of ANY REASON WHATSOEVER that trust in the Russians could in any event be misplaced?

{"commentId":2477007,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"isaacs"}
  • 4 votes
#1.7 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 10:57 PM EDT
{"commentId":2477537,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Scott:

I've said repeatedly I don't trust the Russians and I don't think they are doing what they're doing for any reasons except their own national interests.

[Sorry for the interruption: MICHAEL PHELPS!!!]

Two points. First, there's no need to fog things up with fancy hypotheticals. Human history, as I imply above, is absolutely littered with pertinant analogies. To pick one involving the Russians and a guy from Georgia, do you think the Palmach worried about the arms shipments delivered to Palestine under Stalin's auspices to help the birthing of Israel?

I don't care if Putin is a murderous thug, and the Ossetians don't care either. Subject peoples take help anywhere they can get it. I also happen to believe that Saakasvilli is also a murderous thug, but that's really an irrelevant point.

Second, of course the ceasefire terms are a joke. They were bascically dictated by the victors in a war. However, since Saakasvilli accepted the terms, those are the terms that count. Once again I say: NOT YOUR CALL. It's not "our" call

{"commentId":2477537,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#1.8 - Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:30 AM EDT
{"commentId":2491185,"authorDomain":"sbutki"}

Excellent thoughtful thorough piece. Clipped to Newviner's Picks.

{"commentId":2491185,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"sbutki"}
  • 2 votes
#1.9 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2461516,"authorDomain":"Meloney"}

Excellent Jack!

You wove together disparate (internet etiquette to Classical history) elements into a graceful essay that considers the moral morass accompanying potential US response to current events in Georgia. The pics are an apt cultural choice and work well to graphically depict the complexities of social identification. Very good : )

{"commentId":2461516,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"Meloney"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#2 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:25 AM EDT
{"commentId":2461649,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Melony:

Thanks!

We are so stuck in a moral morass. At this point, I'd RATHER we do this kind of stuff for "Caspian Basin energy supplies" or whatever because at least that would be rational and internally consistent.

{"commentId":2461649,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 4 votes
#2.1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:44 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463603,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}

Bush is playing the role of Neville Chamberlain and Condi Rice is his Hoare. Otherwise, this article's a mess of the typical "moral equivalency" bull@!$%# the left was famous for (and apparently still is) since at least 1968. There are next to no ethnic Russians in South Ossetia and Russian claims of a "humanitarian" intervention responding to a Georgian "blitzkrieg" as put forth by the retired hack pensioner Mikhail Gorbachev in the pages of the Washington Post are a variation of the Big Lie the likes of which we haven't seen since Stalin's days.

{"commentId":2463603,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 6 votes
#2.2 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:31 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463725,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Bill:

I certainly know enough Russian history to know that "humanitarian" isn't the first word that pops to mind.

My point wasn't to address the ethnic Russians in South Ossetia, and to the extent that they were used to justify Putin's actions, that would indeed be shallow and irrelevant pretext. Rather, I was addressing the South Ossetians sense of group identity.

Why are you so concerned with Russian oppression of Georgia while blithely unconcerned with Georgian oppression of Ossetians? Now THAT be some "moral equivalency."

{"commentId":2463725,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 9 votes
#2.3 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:39 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463746,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Bill:

OOOOPS. Forgot the most important part. This is neat:

Bush is playing the role of Neville Chamberlain and Condi Rice is his Hoare.

{"commentId":2463746,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 5 votes
#2.4 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:41 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463782,"authorDomain":"greenpagan"}

Stalin's days

"Ahhhh...Stalin's days...Heady times..."

====

{"commentId":2463782,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"greenpagan"}
  • 3 votes
#2.5 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:43 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463841,"authorDomain":"greenpagan"}

Jack


Why are you so concerned with Russian oppression of Georgia while blithely unconcerned with Georgian oppression of Ossetians?

"Ask a silly question. God bless Robert E. Lee...!"

====

{"commentId":2463841,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"greenpagan"}
  • 4 votes
#2.6 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:47 AM EDT
{"commentId":2464670,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

Why are you so concerned with Russian oppression of Georgia while blithely unconcerned with Georgian oppression of Ossetians? Now THAT be some "moral equivalency."

We ought to consider the sort of Russian oppression that will befall the South Ossetians when they do achieve "independence."

{"commentId":2464670,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 2 votes
#2.7 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:53 PM EDT
{"commentId":2464904,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

E.D.:

We ought to consider the sort of Russian oppression that will befall the South Ossetians when they do achieve "independence."

You know, that's very astute point that I anticipated while drafting this essay.

But you know what? Even though you may very well be correct, that's not our problem.

If it turns out that the Ossetians have screwed themselves by freely choosing an alliance with Russia, then the thing is, they chose it. They determined their own destiny themselves. "Determine" and "self," get it?

{"commentId":2464904,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 5 votes
#2.8 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:12 PM EDT
{"commentId":2465124,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

Please take a look at this analysis of the strategic geographical importance of South Ossetia to Russia. It shines a light on how this goes beyond simple self-determination.

{"commentId":2465124,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 3 votes
#2.9 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:30 PM EDT
{"commentId":2465263,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

E.D.:

I have no illsusions whatsoever about Russian motives or interests. They care about as much about "self determination" or "humanitarian concerns" as that doll that so delightfully illustrates this essay.

From the Ossetian perspective, though, there's a formula so old that I believe Machiavelli described it. One of the ways smaller peoples or a people under duress from a neighbor guarantee their autonomy is to cut a deal with a larger power or neighbor or to somehow garner external support. You do what you can to get what you can so your people don't suffer the fate of the Melians.

If cutting a deal with Putin is what the Ossetians choose to do to neutralize the threat posed by Saakasvilli's regime, then that's their choice. If there's a price to pay--they'll pay it.

{"commentId":2465263,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#2.10 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:42 PM EDT
{"commentId":2465714,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

Russia is now threatening Poland because of our missile defense system proposal:

"Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent," Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

He added, in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons "against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them." Nogovitsyn that would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said, according to Interfax.

Perhaps they have, actually, been emboldened...

{"commentId":2465714,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 3 votes
#2.11 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:21 PM EDT
{"commentId":2465973,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

E.D.:

Just had that quote IMed to me minutes ago.

Hey. International relations is a tough busines. Not as tough as Greco-Roman wrestling, perhaps, but tough.

{"commentId":2465973,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 2 votes
#2.12 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:46 PM EDT
{"commentId":2466063,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

Hey. International relations is a tough busines. Not as tough as Greco-Roman wrestling, perhaps, but tough.

Heh. Yeah, tricky business to be sure...

{"commentId":2466063,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 2 votes
#2.13 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474846,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

If Jack prefers Machiavellian solutions to problems (and his comments above would seem to indicate he does) then he should support my solution. In fact, one of the commenters at my article specifically said that my solution was straight out of Machiavelli.

{"commentId":2474846,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"isaacs"}
  • 3 votes
#2.14 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
{"commentId":2475119,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Scott:

Au contraire mon ami, although I believe you are misusing the term "Machiavellian."

If you mean (as wrongly but commonly believed of Machiavelli) that I'm calling simply for the stronger to to rule simply by force of their strength, that is not what I argued.

I proposed a First Principle of self-determination. The thing is, when you adopt such a principle you're obliged to follow it to its logical conclusion. My position is consistently applicable and I apply it consistently across the board, whether it's Kurds in Iraq, the Jews of the Levant, the Albanians of Kosovo or the Ossetians of Georgia.

You, on the other hand, would accept and support the right of the Jews or Kosovars to self-determination while denying it to the Ossetians simply because, well, I guess because as a matter of taste you find the Ossetians less cute?

In truth, if you strip away the sentimental junk about dead people and rampaging Cossacks, you are the one being "Machiavellian" in the terms you suggest. You think Russia constitutes a strageic threat to American interests and are therefore willing to overlook both the Ossetians right to determine their own destiny AND the violent oppression of those people by a government you believe acts as a counterweight to the threat posed by Russia.

Fine. That's perfectly ordinary position to adopt. I personally think it's wrongheaded, seeing a commitment to Georgia as too much of an entangling alliance, but I can well imagine a valid argument in its favor. But it ain't "moral," Scott, it's self-interested.

{"commentId":2475119,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#2.15 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 5:20 PM EDT
{"commentId":2477177,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}

Heh. If self-determination by plebiscite were any standard my beloved Virginia would have long ago been rent asunder as the animosity between NoVA and the rest of the state has been ongoing for a generation or more.

{"commentId":2477177,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 5 votes
#2.16 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 11:29 PM EDT
{"commentId":2477547,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Bill:

If memory serves, Texas's statehood legislation gives it the right to split into five states if it wants.

{"commentId":2477547,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 2 votes
#2.17 - Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:34 AM EDT
{"commentId":2485401,"authorDomain":"bluejohnnyd"}

Well Bill, it's hardly the rest of the state's fault that Norva decided to pave itself into oblivion. Not to mention let all those politician-lawyery types move in.

{"commentId":2485401,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"bluejohnnyd"}
  • 1 vote
#2.18 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:13 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2461977,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}

Great piece, as usual. Jack!

I especially liked your take on McCain's line "We are all Georgians". Kennedy was saying the U.S. was ready to go to war over Berlin. Is McCain ready to go to war over Georgia?

I think their should be a narrower view of "Godwin's Law". It's different to call someone 'like Hitler' than to compare a specific policy or invasion to current events. Thus the comparison to the Sudetenland is as fair as comparing it to Kosovo.

Regarding the history of the Sudetenland, the claim was that the Czech-Slav government was persecuting German ethnics, or at least not protecting them from assaults. According to what I've read this was a complete farse concocted by the Nazis. But that's history written by the allies, so who knows?

Do the Russians in Georgia have a legitimate beef? Mikhail Gorbachev seems to think so.

Another historical comparison, the War between the States. Some states wanted to leave the Union and form a country where their beloved institution of slavery could be better preserved.

{"commentId":2461977,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#3 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:23 AM EDT
{"commentId":2462278,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Cletus:

Howdy stranger, and Thanks!

I have no doubt that Hitler's grievance was largely manufactured, but for the key point: People got stuck behind the borders of a "nation" they had no ivestment in being a part of. The funny thing is, I'm not really concerned with whether Russia's beef is justifiable. Even if it's not, it's not our call. However:

Putin is not Hitler is another nice rundown of the Russian position.

Histroical comparisons? I threw away dozens, including the War Between the states. Quebec, Belgium, Ireland, Israel,--yowser, I couldda written a book.

:^{)>

{"commentId":2462278,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 2 votes
#3.1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:50 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463868,"authorDomain":"greenpagan"}


Is McCain ready to go to war over Georgia?

"Georgia no. Mississippi maybe..."

====

{"commentId":2463868,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"greenpagan"}
  • 3 votes
#3.2 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:49 AM EDT
{"commentId":2474835,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}

Been playing a lot of [url=http://www.matrixgames.com/products/357/details/Gary.Grigsby's.War.Between.The.States]War between the States[/url] game lately. Made me think of the comparison.

{"commentId":2474835,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
  • 1 vote
#3.3 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2463205,"authorDomain":"alkhidr"}

This was an excellent read. Thank you for the background information and analysis. I especially loved the reasoning used in breaking down the "We are all...now" (fill in the blank). Bravo!

{"commentId":2463205,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"alkhidr"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#4 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:01 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463507,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

AlKidir:

Thanks you for the compliment!

I actually toned down the part you like from a more harshly partisan tone. I'm getting a little overstimulated with this election approaching.

{"commentId":2463507,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#4.1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:23 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2463531,"authorDomain":"caroaber"}

jfx: I don't have a problem with the analogy between the Georgian putsch and the Sudetenland crisis. One doesn't need to be a neo-conservative, or even right-leaning, to recognize the similar pretext for invasion and domination.

{"commentId":2463531,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"caroaber"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#5 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:25 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463639,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

carober:

Intriguing. You're a pro-Georgia lib/lefty, I presume? It's interesting how events like this sometimes bollix up the expected ideological lines.

{"commentId":2463639,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#5.1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:33 AM EDT
{"commentId":2463826,"authorDomain":"caroaber"}

Bollocks up, indeed.

I support the territorial integrity of Georgia; its boundaries were established and recognized. I'm not naive, and I suspect the two breakaway regions will be annexed by Russia. It's happening before our eyes, and I don't like it.

I'm sure the Germans would like to get Danzig back, but now it's Gdansk. Russia should not have interfered. Their claims of "genocide" have been exposed as false.

Poland and Ukraine could be dragged into this quagmire.

My politics are left of center, but I've voted across the spectrum (Bob Dole for president in '96, Gov. Jerry Brown in '92, Ralph Nader in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004). I've never thought of myself as liberal.

This Georgian situation is already hairy and could grow much worse. It does echo Hitler, Stalin, appeasement, and even Vichy collaboration.

{"commentId":2463826,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"caroaber"}
  • 5 votes
#5.2 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:47 AM EDT
{"commentId":2464048,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

carober:

EXTREMELY well-stated. So well-stated that I believe I can paraphrase your First Principle, which I will put apposite mine. If I misstate your position, please correct me:

You think that the core value that must be respected is the Rule of Law, as expressed in the multi-lateral treaty recognigtion of international borders.

I think the core value that must be respected is self-determination, to which legalisms about imaginary lines must yield.

Have I got that right? One could argue that those are both "liberal" values.

{"commentId":2464048,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 4 votes
#5.3 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:03 PM EDT
{"commentId":2464747,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

You think that the core value that must be respected is the Rule of Law, as expressed in the multi-lateral treaty recognigtion of international borders.

I think the core value that must be respected is self-determination, to which legalisms about imaginary lines must yield.

This is a conundrum, no doubt. What are your thoughts on the three Iraqi territories? The self-determination of the Kurds, etc? I don't mean this as a thread-jacking, but just to gain a wider perspective. These imaginary lines are quite common in today's world, after all. Can we erase all of them? Should we allow powers like Russia to aid in their effort to establish borders based on nationalist trends, or ethnicity?

Will this lead to genocide, to peace...? Must all ethnic groups belong to only their own country? I'm not sure. This is a tough question.

caraober said:

I support the territorial integrity of Georgia; its boundaries were established and recognized. I'm not naive, and I suspect the two breakaway regions will be annexed by Russia. It's happening before our eyes, and I don't like it.

This is another problem. With a nation like Russia intervening, do provinces like Ossetia truly gain independence, or just trade one country for another?

{"commentId":2464747,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 4 votes
#5.4 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:58 PM EDT
{"commentId":2464997,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

E.D.:

On the old NYT Forums I posted a long disquistion on August 1, 2003 calling for three-way partition. Or rather, suggesting that such a partition was inevitable and that while we could do it the hard way or the easy way, we might as well do it the easy way. It's still inevitable, but it looks like we're going the hard way.

As for the imaginary lines, as I said, sometimes centuries go by or blood is shed that rationalize such lines, or, sometimes, the distinct group identities reach an accomodation: I would suggest Quebec and Peurto Rico as examples of that. Sometimes, as in Ulster, the @!$%# goes on forever no matter what.

And that imaginary line dividing the Pushtuns in Afghanistan/Pakistan has turned to a whole lotta trouble.

{"commentId":2464997,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 2 votes
#5.5 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:21 PM EDT
{"commentId":2465154,"authorDomain":"nytimes-forum-refugees"}

Maybe KOS will pick up this seed.

{"commentId":2465154,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"nytimes-forum-refugees"}
  • 1 vote
#5.6 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:33 PM EDT
{"commentId":2465211,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

I agree with all of that Jack. I am all for Kurdish independence. But oh boy does it get complicated when you take Turkey into consideration.

{"commentId":2465211,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 2 votes
#5.7 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:37 PM EDT
{"commentId":2477204,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}

For the record, I'm still trying to get over this. The upside has been that that event saved the Old Dominion from becoming the butt of jokes.

{"commentId":2477204,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 2 votes
#5.8 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 11:33 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2466650,"authorDomain":"lisaed"}

Comparisons to Hitler are inevitable when bad men cross borders where they shouldn't be venturing. In this dangerous world in which we live---unfortunately comparisons to Hitler are going to be part of the narrative on how to avoid the mistakes of the past. Why are you so against them? Is it because these verbalizations make the world seem to be too dangerous? I notice that your essay is very light on how Barack Obama fits into all of this.....and I think it's because the more the world appears dangerous (a la adolf hitler dangerous) the worse it is for the young obama and the better it is for John McCain.

{"commentId":2466650,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"lisaed"}
  • 4 votes
Reply#6 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:41 PM EDT
{"commentId":2466942,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

lisa:

For one thing, it trivializes the moral stakes. For that matter, it trivializes the notion of national interest. If every adversary is Hitler, we would be in a constant state of full-blown world war with the future of the West hanging by thread.

Well, the West isn't hanging by thread and Hugo Chavez want to make a crude and unseemly remark about Bush--or even shut down tv stations--the history of the world isn't at stake and shutting down tv stations isn't a Holocaust.

And I must protest: I made a specfic point of quoting (and criticizing) one of Obama's foreign policy advisors in the article and expressed my disppointment elsewhere in the thread. I did, I admit, focus more on McCain but that's because it was his response to the crisis that was the take-off point for this essay.

As for "appeasement," unless you are willing to calkl for the American military to deploy to Georgia and repel Putin's tanks, you're an appeaser, too. To paraphrase Churchill in another context, "Now we're just haggling about the price."

{"commentId":2466942,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 6 votes
#6.1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
{"commentId":2467314,"authorDomain":"lisaed"}

If every adversary is Hitler,

Jack--I don't agree that every adversary who refuses to respect legal borders is "Hitler"---it's how to most effectively prevent them from becoming Hitler......and if these foes are not already hitler but have the potential to become hitler than we are not at a point (in your Russia/Ossetia example) where we must react as if the western world was in a full out declaration of war.

And I did note your Brzezinski quote and disappointment---I just said imho the essay was noticeably "light" on the implications of the situation to obama....otherwise...great job as usual.

{"commentId":2467314,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"lisaed"}
  • 5 votes
#6.2 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
{"commentId":2467527,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

lisa:

But not every bad actor on the world stage has the potential to become Hitler.

we must react as if the western world was in a full out declaration of war.

Why? On the face of it, this is a regional conflict in which, oh by the way, whatever you think of Putin, Saakasvilli rolled his own tanks into South Ossetia in an attempt to extend his writ of government by force to previously autonomous region. That may have been, he believed, for the good of his nation and if so I commend him for his patriotism. But it sure as HELL isn't "democracy."

It's their problem, let them handle it. It's not a world war until we make it one. Which we do by treating everyone else's conflicts as vital to our own national interests. Which this is not.

Besides, as I think one of Bill's seeds points out, Putin isn't being Hitler, he's being Czar Nicholas. Czars we can work with.

{"commentId":2467527,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 5 votes
#6.3 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:01 PM EDT
{"commentId":2467850,"authorDomain":"lisaed"}

we must react as if the western world was in a full out declaration of war.

Jack--that's exactly the opposite of what I said---I think you may have misunderstood? I said:

then we are not at a point (in your Russia/Ossetia example) where we must react as if the western world was in a full out declaration of war.

{"commentId":2467850,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"lisaed"}
  • 3 votes
#6.4 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:35 PM EDT
{"commentId":2467902,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

lisa:

Yup, you got me. My fault. I am so burned out from composing this article.

{"commentId":2467902,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#6.5 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:40 PM EDT
{"commentId":2470291,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}

Here's what all of this comes down to in a nutshell. Putin did this with one thing in mind primarily. First and foremost to cement himself in the minds of Russians as the man who made Russia "great" again and thus to extend his personal power and that of his cronies. Putin's private wealth can only be estimated but it is probably in the tens of billions. He has essentially taken the oligarchs holdings and confiscated them for him and his cronies. His Russia is a gangster state as thoroughly as Chicago in the '20s was a gangster city right down to the thuggery of killing regime opponents with polonium in a hit job to rival the icepick in Trotsky's skull. He picked on the most unstable of the leaders in the near abroad in Saakashvili but it didn't have the desired effect on the Poles who turned right around and shoved it up his ass with their agreement to base a US anti-missile battery in Poland.

{"commentId":2470291,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 7 votes
#6.6 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:22 PM EDT
{"commentId":2470459,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Bill:

Putin did this with one thing in mind primarily. First and foremost to cement himself in the minds of Russians as the man who made Russia "great" again and thus to extend his personal power and that of his cronies.

If that's true--or even it's simply a critical factor, as I agree it is--SO WHAT? It's not all that different from how Reagan won popularity and if you throw in the crony aggrandizement, you get GWB, too.

There's nothing you said about Putin that Machiavelli didn't say about The Prince 500 years ago and it's been standard operating procedure for politics in the West ever since.

And here's the deal on Poland: The USA is stronger, but Russia's closer. It's the Poles' call. The funny thing is, I think as a matter of American interests, it was flat out stupid and short-sighted of Bush to press this missile deal deal now, but what else is to be expected? He's a stupid and short-sighted man. But as a matter of Polish interests, this may be a most excellent deal. We'll see.

{"commentId":2470459,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#6.7 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:54 PM EDT
{"commentId":2477225,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}

Speaking of stupid, when are you going to stop proving why the Democratic Party's "moral equivalency" wing shouldn't be trusted anywhere near the levers of power in this country? Good grief what an embarrassment. That's what comes of hanging around that demented GP too long. ;>0

{"commentId":2477225,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 3 votes
#6.8 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 11:37 PM EDT
{"commentId":2477589,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Bill:

Oh, it'll be easy. After the War Party gets us involved in one lunatic foreign adventure too many, the people will hand the levers of power over to the Dems.

{"commentId":2477589,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 2 votes
#6.9 - Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:42 AM EDT
{"commentId":2477622,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}

Jack, we're not going to war with Russia and you know it. But if we did we'd make short work of Putin's legions in pretty quick order so long as the whole thing remained conventional. The Russian military's still in a pretty dismal state. I saw a clip on Beeb World the other night and it was obvious some of the Russian conscripts were drunk.

{"commentId":2477622,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 3 votes
#6.10 - Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:50 AM EDT
{"commentId":2477657,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Bill:

The only way we'd lose is if somehow Russia tricked us into making the same mistake Napoleon and Hitler made.

And with Bush as president, that would be a distinct possibility.

{"commentId":2477657,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 2 votes
#6.11 - Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:57 AM EDT
{"commentId":2491639,"authorDomain":"lisaed"}

Jack -6.5---s'okay.....you had me re-reading my comment twice to make sure I even knew what I was trying to say. Anyhoo---PS - love the Matryoshka images.....I've always wanted one and these photos remind me of a little gift shop there used to be in Rockefeller Center that sold a gorgeous array of these beauties....not sure if it's still there.

{"commentId":2491639,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"lisaed"}
  • 3 votes
#6.12 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:03 PM EDT
{"commentId":2491823,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

lisa:

My photog Eileen thanks you!

On your substantive point, on consideration, I think this is the issue: To what extent do analogies to Germany of the Nazi era help or hurt the struggle to ensure something like that does not re-occur.

I think you're saying that if we don't warn and remind people whenever such events could re-occur, we're derilict. I think there's a growing Chicken Little or Cry Wolf quality to such warnings and reminders.

{"commentId":2491823,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#6.13 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
{"commentId":2492039,"authorDomain":"lisaed"}

I think you're saying that if we don't warn and remind people whenever such events could re-occur, we're derilict. I think there's a growing Chicken Little or Cry Wolf quality to such warnings and reminders.

Jack -6.13-While it's become cliche what I think is: "Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it" makes a heck of a lot of sense---that said I don't think Putin is Hitler --yet. I'm likening his little adventure into Georgia more with a throwback to the Cold War. I do see analogies to Hitler though with the so called Islamo-facists and the rhetoric spewing from the mouth of Ahmadinejad. The bottom line is that I like my party see the world as a more dangerous place than do you and your party.....is that fair? I'm recalling Obama's Iran is just a "little country" remark right about now....

{"commentId":2492039,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"lisaed"}
  • 3 votes
#6.14 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:34 PM EDT
{"commentId":2492277,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

lisa:

The bottom line is that I like my party see the world as a more dangerous place than do you and your party.....is that fair?

Actually, I DO think that's fair. But also, I really don't think the world is as dangerous as the Repubs would have it--or, possibly, that there are some dangers we're better off learning to live with because to try to extinguish them is too costly on a cost/benefit or risk-assessment basis.

{"commentId":2492277,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 4 votes
#6.15 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:51 PM EDT
{"commentId":2493964,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

Americans that fancy themselves strategic thinkers about America and its place in the world would do themselves well to read John Julius Norwich's A Short History of Byzantium. The Byzantines faced the age-old question of how to keep the balance of power in your favor whilst undermining your enemies and keeping them at one another's throats and away from your's. There's a reason that it reigned from 330AD to 1453AD.

{"commentId":2493964,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"isaacs"}
  • 3 votes
#6.16 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:23 PM EDT
{"commentId":2494912,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}

"read John Julius Norwich's A Short History of Byzantium."

Sounds like good advice. I'm probably to lazy to follow it, sadly.

{"commentId":2494912,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
  • 2 votes
#6.17 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 8:33 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":2466998,"authorDomain":"politicalcenter"}

Jack - In the middle of reading this, before I got to your last section, I copied the following from CNN in 2000:

The Clinton years have been a period of closely balanced, hard-fought, and sometimes stalemated political battles in which neither party has been able to fully enact its policy prescriptions. Clinton's New Democrat politics and sharp political skills have thwarted the Republican drive for realignment, and prevented the GOP from seeing its complete program become reality.

Although I claim no prescience, you and I often think in similar lines, and agree on many issues of morality. Thus, I was not surprised to find the following at the end of your lengthy and excellent article.

[S]ince you know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

The Clinton years show the merits in balance in politics. Like in any situation when there is real strength, the weak can be exploited. I hope that this year again finds balance, with McCain in the presidency. That way, the weak cannot be exploited and the strong dominant in ways not even apparent until and unless the Democrats control everything.

As far as the rest of your article, it is not necessarily right that might is imbalanced today. Indeed, if anything the balances in the world have rarely been so equal from country to country and continent to continent. As economics dictate the future, so too will smaller countries gain in prominence and importance. Early in the Twentieth Century, few could have possibly predicted that the US would be so confined by the small country of Iraq or a renegade group of people in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Few would have seen the future of oil. And everyone was claiming that China and India could never get their acts together. The very expansion of nuclear weapons, the use of force by various groups of people, and the horrors of terrorism wrap their hands around the world in ways that we can rarely understand and have even less of an opportunity to combat.

With this in mind, it seems to me that we are in a state of being that favors us all. It is only if concessions are made to "peace" or "war" and a concommitant loss of puisance on the world stage occurs that we could be in danger. Those days are not on us yet.

{"commentId":2466998,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"politicalcenter"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#7 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:12 PM EDT
{"commentId":2467175,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

pc:

I hope that this year again finds balance, with McCain in the presidency.

That's a fair point and I think that very sentiment is why McCain is so close in what should be a Dem year. Really, in most of your argumentation you don't need to present the case that Obama is extraordinarilly ill-suited by either character or ideology to be President. Just expand on that "balance" point. The bonus is, you'll actually piss off the Obamaniacs a lot more than you already have.

:^{)>

I do, however, disagree. As I think I told you once before, my position is that the Republicans have to be punished by the voters for eight years of absolutely atrocious misrule. To elect another Republican would be to vindicate Republican policies that I believe have been destructive of the common weal. The USA can very easily withstand a couple of years of Dem overreaching if that's the price of the Republicans being properly chastised.

{"commentId":2467175,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 7 votes
#7.1 - Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
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{"commentId":2470924,"authorDomain":"caltha-palustris"}

Jack, lovely pictures of the Matryoshkas (tho, I've seen groupings of six and not five).

I'm conflicted over the Georgian/Russian conflict - on one hand the Georgians don't trust our support of their autonomy (and whose Big Idea was it in our government's leadership (dare I proclaim it to be the one who I lovingly refer to as "My Troubled Liege"??!!) to have given the "false hope" to Georgian leaders into believing! we'd ever come to their aid militarily with an overwhelming force if a conflict - were to occur - that has occurred with Russia?!!?).

Cries for a western, or US, retaliation in whatever form it takes, will most probably be perceived as a shell game to all players in this conflict.
You see, Bush's luster as a "three-card-monty" just doesn't have the same shine these days. I have always perceived Bush's diplomacy as such, and Putin's more like chess. I dare say, Bush has o' wee bit of egg on his face.

For all of Rice's expertise in Eastern bloc and the former Soviet Union, I doubt she'll be able to put the Matryoshkas back together again. Another missing piece in Bush's legacy as a nation builder. No?

BTW: I'm curious...How much input do you suppose she had in helping to draft Sarkozy's five sentence peace treaty?

Over the weekend I hope to seek out the opinion from one of the émigrés - if I can find her - I know from the Republic of Georgia.

IMHO, as simplistic as my opinion may sound - Bush has been thumbing his nose at Putin's Russia for years - and I do believe this was a payback of sorts - and not just one directed at the Georgian president.

P.S. re: The Ulster Region. My grandmother's birthplace - a farm town which my father visited in 1929 at the tender age of 16 - on the border of Cavan and Ulster isn't on the map anymore. Here I was told my grandmother's family (and all the rest of my ancestors) fled the potato famine. I, now imagine - though it was never discussed in front of me during my childhood - that the cause of their diaspora, or that of never returning home for good, was far greater than just rotting potatoes from Phytophthora infestans. Now, their birthplaces are just forgotten times and places.

{"commentId":2470924,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"caltha-palustris"}
  • 4 votes
Reply#8 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 1:33 AM EDT
{"commentId":2472933,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

caltha:

lovely pictures of the Matryoshkas (tho, I've seen groupings of six and not five).

Thanks! (However, since I have to pay for the matryoska out of the earnings from this artcle, I had to go with the five layers over the more expensive six).

I've been trying not to blame Bush for blundering into this crisis because I think something like this was pretty much inevitable based on its own momentum not especially amenable to human intervention.

However, as I put it elsewhere, it seems like Bush can never leave worse enough alone.

If you find your friend, would please report back to us in an article or comment?

On Ulster, I just this year discovered that I have roots in the early 20th century Order of the Orange, which is pretty incredible being as I ended up Catholic.

{"commentId":2472933,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 5 votes
#8.1 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:01 PM EDT
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{"commentId":2474508,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}
{"commentId":2474508,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"isaacs"}
  • 4 votes
Reply#9 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 3:49 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474576,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Scott:

I know this was accidental, but we should do something like this more often. And we had pretty much the whole spectrum covered between the three of us.

I just realized that I had only cross-posted to Bill's seed on the subject, not his article, so here's Bill's:

Georgia On My Mind

{"commentId":2474576,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 4 votes
#9.1 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 3:59 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474924,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}

Thanks for the links.

I like Bill's. If the Russians veto it, it demonstrates it's not just about protecting the locals.

{"commentId":2474924,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
  • 3 votes
#9.2 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:51 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474945,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

I agree. I think some healthy (and at times rancorous) debate can elucidate overlooked points about important events.

{"commentId":2474945,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"isaacs"}
  • 4 votes
#9.3 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:54 PM EDT
{"commentId":2474965,"authorDomain":"neoconstant"}

Yes, and thanks for the link to my column in your article, Jack. Quite a few good pieces floating around on this subject. After the dust settles I imagine we'll see a few more pop up...

{"commentId":2474965,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"neoconstant"}
  • 3 votes
#9.4 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 4:58 PM EDT
{"commentId":2475143,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

Cletus:

I like Bill's.

You dis me in my own house?!?

I must protect my house. I must protect my house.

:^{)>

{"commentId":2475143,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}
  • 3 votes
#9.5 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 5:24 PM EDT
{"commentId":2475589,"authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}

Whenever a right wing says we should go to the U.N. , it makes me smile.
Bill's got the idea, even if the Russians veto it (and they certainly would), the propaganda value is cheap!

Regarding self-determination, I'm in agreement. That's what we would be arguing before the U.N..

The logical conclusion part makes me think of the War between the States again. If a state, say California, voted to leave the union, what would the Federals do? Some say the Civil War settled that question.

{"commentId":2475589,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"cletuswilbury"}
  • 4 votes
#9.6 - Sat Aug 16, 2008 6:33 PM EDT
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{"commentId":2486673,"authorDomain":"gedanken"}

Lets go to the fundamentals: Russia is a huge country with vast natural resources and declining population. It's no longer a bear but a plump whale.

What's Putin to do? Make sure your neighbors still believe you are a bear.

And Putin is no Hitler. He does not have the infrastructure. An authoritarian leader without a world class economy, military, and human resources is just a tinhorn dictator.

{"commentId":2486673,"threadId":"332383","contentId":"1749644","authorDomain":"gedanken"}
  • 4 votes
Reply#10 - Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:53 AM EDT
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